Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.471752 29.105980 34.906138 42.908268 54.027246 69.558907 94.212529
2024-12-15 19.436330 24.740475 32.166253 43.964002 63.718590 99.142160 180.467740
2024-12-22 15.965213 21.088859 28.730271 41.954728 67.025574 121.374221 298.204571
2024-12-29 14.043170 19.108289 27.064106 41.884311 73.395723 156.542828 585.154049
2025-01-05 12.281262 17.016019 24.695960 39.696918 74.189122 179.772142 1040.266102
2025-01-12 10.754816 15.062830 22.187391 36.516879 71.160848 188.663282 1632.289642
2025-01-19 9.618402 13.596184 20.285455 34.089012 69.005802 199.641167 2887.637870
2025-01-26 9.803630 14.301514 22.316237 40.450495 94.995775 411.582576 NaN
2025-02-02 9.513676 14.153356 22.730355 43.363261 113.750782 729.822925 NaN
2025-02-09 8.744006 13.076412 21.164947 40.953897 110.963223 815.812110 NaN
2025-02-16 8.466814 12.852179 21.276156 42.933858 128.609850 1579.989793 NaN
2025-02-23 8.069201 12.366557 20.775488 43.119900 138.744049 2789.300936 NaN
2025-03-02 7.658998 11.854082 20.221666 43.246171 150.777827 6682.225648 NaN
2025-03-09 7.341326 11.488542 19.941818 44.160785 170.054258 55580.940778 NaN
2025-03-16 6.867966 10.783626 18.817586 42.123716 167.517892 309813.401831 NaN
2025-03-23 6.564092 10.382703 18.332889 42.051423 180.315192 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 6.164234 9.765094 17.284711 39.850926 173.693914 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 5.736971 9.070265 16.003733 36.652677 156.405476 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 5.382925 8.503041 14.981756 34.211444 144.643877 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 5.546083 8.965657 16.403709 40.608912 226.557782 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.495871 8.994211 16.796676 43.539168 291.761404 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.212733 8.525105 15.902602 41.115293 272.540502 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.135430 8.478256 16.069694 43.107148 336.165778 NaN NaN